Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort

• Author(s) / Creator(s)

  • Mélodie Kunegel-Lion
  • Mark A. Lewis

• The efficacy of direct control methods in bark beetle outbreaks is a disputed topic. While some studies
  report that control reduces tree mortality, others see little effect. Existing models, linking control rate to
  beetle population dynamics and tree infestations, give insights, but there is a need to take into account the
  environment spatial variability and its impact on beetle life cycle. Here, we use natural variability found in a
  carefully monitored and controlled infestation to simulate outbreak dynamics under different control effort and
  to explore the impact of control on outbreaks suppression and tree mortality. Our semi-empirical predictive
  model of the number of infested trees as a function of ecological and environmental variables is coupled to a
  simulation model for infestation dynamics. We show that even a little control can have a major impact on the
  number of infested trees after several years of sustained effort. However, a moderate control of 60% is required
  to reduce the beetle population on the long term. Furthermore, a control rate of 69%–83% is needed to achieve
  outbreak suppression in under 13 years depending on the abundance of incoming flights from outside sources.

• Date created

  2020-01-19

• Subjects / Keywords

  • Insect epidemics
  • Population modelling
  • Simulations
  • Direct control
  • Pest management

• Type of Item

  Article (Draft / Submitted)

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-xcq3-pw71

• License

  Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International