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SupplementaryMaterial_MountainPineBeetleOutbreakDurationAndPineMortality.pdf
Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort.pdf
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Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort

  • Author(s) / Creator(s)
  • The efficacy of direct control methods in bark beetle outbreaks is a disputed topic. While some studies
    report that control reduces tree mortality, others see little effect. Existing models, linking control rate to
    beetle population dynamics and tree infestations, give insights, but there is a need to take into account the
    environment spatial variability and its impact on beetle life cycle. Here, we use natural variability found in a
    carefully monitored and controlled infestation to simulate outbreak dynamics under different control effort and
    to explore the impact of control on outbreaks suppression and tree mortality. Our semi-empirical predictive
    model of the number of infested trees as a function of ecological and environmental variables is coupled to a
    simulation model for infestation dynamics. We show that even a little control can have a major impact on the
    number of infested trees after several years of sustained effort. However, a moderate control of 60% is required
    to reduce the beetle population on the long term. Furthermore, a control rate of 69%–83% is needed to achieve
    outbreak suppression in under 13 years depending on the abundance of incoming flights from outside sources.

  • Date created
    2020-01-19
  • Subjects / Keywords
  • Type of Item
    Article (Draft / Submitted)
  • DOI
    https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-xcq3-pw71
  • License
    Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
  • Language
  • Citation for previous publication
    • Kunegel-Lion, M., Lewis, M.A. 2020. Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort. Journal of Environmental Management 260: 110167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110167