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A STRUCTURED THRESHOLD MODEL FOR MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAK
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- Author(s) / Creator(s)
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A vigor-structured model for mountain pine beetle outbreak dy-
namics within a forest stand is proposed and analyzed. This model explicitly
tracks the changing vigor structure in the stand. All model parameters, other
than beetle vigor preference, were determined by tting model components
to empirical data. An abrupt threshold for tree mortality to beetle densities
allows for model simpli cation. Based on initial beetle density, model out-
comes vary from decimation of the entire stand in a single year, to inability
of the beetles to infect any trees. An intermediate outcome involves an initial
infestation which subsequently dies out before the entire stand is killed. A
model extension is proposed for dynamics of beetle aggregation. This involves
a stochastic formulation. -
- Date created
- 2010-01-01
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- Subjects / Keywords
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- Type of Item
- Article (Draft / Submitted)