Models of lake invasibility by Bythotrephes longimanus, a non-indigenous zooplankton.

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  • We built a family of hierarchical risk models for the spread of invasions by the spiny waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Ontario, Canada. Knowledge of covariates determining lake invasibility and ability to predict risk of future invasions may help to develop management policy and slow the invasions in the future. The models are based on two component submodels. The first component was a stochastic gravity submodel for the propagule pressure between lakes via recreational boaters. The second component was a submodel for establishment risk, given that the invader has already been introduced to a lake. This component was a logistic regression model, incorporating up to 17 measured covariates that describe the physical and chemical condition of the lake. Variants of the risk model, each incorporating different subsets of the covariates, were calibrated using presence/absence data from a 300-lake survey conducted in 2005–2006 by the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN). The predictive capacity of the best model was high, giving AUC values close to 0.94. Of the model covariates considered, the most important predictors of existing invasions were propagule pressure and lake pH, and, to lesser extents, phosphorus (P) and lake elevation. Our fitting of the propagule pressure submodel demonstrated a significant Allee effect for Bythotrephes. Our development of the establishment risk predictor showed that it is essential to account for temporal variability in lake physico-chemistry. We demonstrated that invasions of lake networks by the spiny waterflea follow highly predictable patterns which can be understood with a properly calibrated, hierarchical risk model.

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    © 2011 Springer. This version of this article is open access and can be downloaded and shared. The original author(s) and source must be cited.
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    • Potapov, A., Muirhead, J., Yan, N., Lele, S., & Lewis, M. (2011). Models of lake invasibility by Bythotrephes longimanus, a non-indigenous zooplankton. Biological Invasions, 13(11), 2459-2476. doi: 10.1007/s10530-011-0075-y