Expansion under climate change: the genetic consequences

• Author(s) / Creator(s)

  • Jimmy Garnier
  • Mark Lewis

• Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic
  consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn,
  are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction–
  diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change.
  We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse
  the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions
  and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate
  change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is
  not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity
  through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of
  diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show
  that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and
  range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions
  in heterogeneous environments.

• Date created

  2016-01-01

• Subjects / Keywords

  • neutral genetic diversity
  • range expansion
  • travelling wave
  • climate change
  • range shift
  • diffusion model
  • reaction

• Type of Item

  Article (Draft / Submitted)

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-6ecx-kz26

• License

  Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International