Identifying the Predictors of Mathematics Anxiety, Confidence, and Performance in Canada: An Educational Data Mining Approach

• Author(s) / Creator(s)

  • Bulut, Okan
  • Clelland, Ashley
  • Wongvorachan, Tarid

• The goal of this study was to identify important and actionable (i.e., can be acted upon) predictors of mathematics performance, mathematics anxiety, and confidence in mathematics among Canadian and Alberta students. The study followed an explanatory sequential mixed methods design, combining educational data mining with qualitative feedback from mathematics subject experts. In Phase 1, we surveyed mathematics subject experts from the Calgary Catholic School District (CCSD) regarding the importance of selected predictors from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 assessment administered by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA) and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 assessment administered by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (ORCD) and then conducted educational data mining (EDM) analyses using the predictors that were rated highly by the experts (Phase 2). In Phase 3, we conducted a focus group with the mathematics experts to explore the actionability of important predictors in the models. Key actionable predictors for Grade 4 mathematics performance included class size, using longer tests for mathematics assessment, and school socioeconomic status (i.e., average education and income background of students’ families). For mathematics anxiety, actionable predictors included disorderly behaviour in mathematics classes, class size, and student attendance. For confidence in mathematics, key actionable predictors included instructional clarity in mathematics lessons, disorderly behaviour in mathematics classes, and students feeling hungry at school. Actionable predictors for 15-year-old students’ mathematics performance included lack of teaching staff, the frequency of consultation for school improvement, and implementing policy to improve students' reading. Results of the Phase 3 consultation were consolidated into a list of 18 recommendations. Overall, the findings from this study contribute to our broader understanding of the predictors that are most correlated with students’ mathematics outcomes and highlight several opportunities for supporting students in mathematics.

• Date created

  2024-03-13

• Subjects / Keywords

  • mathematics achievement
  • math anxiety
  • confidence in math
  • mixed methods
  • educational data mining
  • TIMSS
  • PISA

• Type of Item

  Report

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-x6q5-de82

• License

  Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International