The Development of a Technology-Explicit Bottom-Up Integrated Multi-Regional Energy Model of Canada

  • Author / Creator
    Davis, Matthew, B
  • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently at the crux of political, environmental, technological, and cultural discussions due to climate change. A drastic reduction of GHG emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. This thesis presents the development of a bottom-up, data intensive, multi-regional energy model for Canada using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. A novel energy model, the LEAP-Canada model employs an accounting-based framework to provide the ability to examine extensive ranges of energy use and GHG mitigation strategies. Business-as-usual energy and GHG emission outlooks are provided for Canada on the national level and for its provinces including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada on individual levels. The LEAP-Canada model offers a unique and updated outlook on Canada’s integrated energy system as of 2017 and provides bottom-up capabilities for energy efficiency analysis, energy planning, and GHG mitigation scenario assessments to the year 2050. This research also interprets the energy flow from available primary fuel to end use in all of the provinces and territories in Canada for the year 2012 using Sankey diagrams. These flow charts illustrate energy production, imports, exports, and local consumption by economic sector, and quantify the amount of useful and rejected energy. The inflow and outflow values could help determine existing energy efficiencies and energy intensity improvement potential. This pictorial view of energy flow could help policy makers set targets for improving energy efficiency, select strategies for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, and help satisfy the vast global climate change challenges. An overview and analysis of the GHG landscape in Canada for the years 2014, 2030, and 2050 with Sankey diagrams is also conducted. Each major economic sector in Canada was analyzed, i.e., the electricity generation, residential, commercial and institutional, mining and upstream oil and gas industry, other industry sectors, transportation, and agriculture sectors. The emissions released in these sectors (combustion, fugitive, and non-energy) were traced back to the resources and fuels responsible. GHGs in exported resources and fuels are included in the analysis. Diagrams are provided for Canada as well as for all the major provinces in Canada including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Provinces. Comparisons between these regions were made in terms of absolute emissions and emission intensities. The LEAP-Canada model was then used to appraise, to 2050, the Western Canadian crude available for export as well as the energy demands and GHG emissions brought into each province from the Line 3, Energy East, Trans Mountain, Northern Gateway, and Keystone XL pipelines. Scenarios in which pipelines are proposed but not constructed were also analyzed. The impacts of crude-by-rail alternatives using bitumen with 30%, 15%, and 0% diluent were assessed and compared. Finally, this work quantifies oil sands emissions between 2010 and 2050 with the LEAP-Canada model. The greenhouse gas strategy of using British Columbia’s hydropower for oil sands operations was evaluated.

  • Subjects / Keywords
  • Graduation date
    Fall 2017
  • Type of Item
  • Degree
    Master of Science
  • DOI
  • License
    This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.