Verification of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Alberta

• Author / Creator

  Pennelly, Clark William

• We simulated three heavy summer precipitation events in Alberta, Canada, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and compared the output precipitation data with observations to determine model accuracy. Each storm was simulated multiple times, using five different cumulus parameterization schemes and three grid resolutions. The explicit scheme, when simulated using 6 km grid resolution, was found to be the most accurate scheme when simulating these heavy precipitation events.
  We also used the WRF model to perform daily forecasts during 2011-2012. The forecasts include 2-meter maximum and minimum temperatures, 10-meter wind speed, sea-level surface pressure, and daily accumulated precipitation. When compared against observations, the WRF forecasts showed seasonal differences and tendencies such as forecasting a smaller range of diurnal temperatures than observed. WRF was found to have high skill scores when forecasting maximum temperature against climatology and persistence forecasts, but was less skillful when forecasting minimum temperatures.

• Subjects / Keywords

  • WRF
  • Numerical weather prediction
  • Forecast verification
  • Precipitation
  • Skill score
  • Weather Research and Forecasting
  • Cumulus parameterization

• Graduation date

  Spring 2013

• Type of Item

  Thesis

• Degree

  Master of Science

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/R3TQ3P

• License

  This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.