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Combined Fuzzy and Probabilistic Simulation for Construction Management Open Access


Other title
Probabilistic Uncertainty
Discrete event simulation
Fuzzy logic
Pipe spool fabrication
Range estimating
Industrial Construction
Risk analysis
Construction management
Monte Carlo simulation
Type of item
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Sadeghi, Naimeh
Supervisor and department
Fayek, Aminah Robinson (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Examining committee member and department
Pedrycz, Witold (Electrical and Computer Engineering)
Mohamed, Yasser (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Date accepted
Graduation date
Master of Science
Degree level
Simulation has been used extensively for addressing probabilistic uncertainty in range estimating for construction projects. However, subjective and linguistically expressed information results in added non-probabilistic uncertainty in construction management. Fuzzy logic has been used successfully for representing such uncertainties in construction projects. In practice, an approach that can handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties in a risk assessment model is necessary. In this thesis, first, a Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation (FMCS) framework is proposed for risk analysis of construction projects. To verify the feasibility of the FMCS framework and demonstrate its main features, a cost range estimating template is developed and employed to estimate the cost of a highway overpass project. Second, a hybrid framework that considers both fuzzy and probabilistic uncertainty for discrete event simulation of construction projects is suggested. The application of the proposed framework is discussed using a real case study of a pipe spool fabrication shop.
Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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