ERA

Download the full-sized PDF of Models of lake invasibility by Bythotrephes longimanus, a non-indigenous zooplankton.Download the full-sized PDF

Analytics

Share

Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R39G5GF8V

Download

Export to: EndNote  |  Zotero  |  Mendeley

Communities

This file is in the following communities:

Biological Sciences, Department of

Collections

This file is in the following collections:

Journal Articles (Biological Sciences)

Models of lake invasibility by Bythotrephes longimanus, a non-indigenous zooplankton. Open Access

Descriptions

Author or creator
Potapov, A.
Muirhead, J.
Yan, N.
Lele, S.
Lewis, M.
Additional contributors
Subject/Keyword
aquatic invasions
statistical model selection
risk model
invasion predictions
habitat suitability
Type of item
Journal Article (Published)
Language
English
Place
Time
Description
We built a family of hierarchical risk models for the spread of invasions by the spiny waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Ontario, Canada. Knowledge of covariates determining lake invasibility and ability to predict risk of future invasions may help to develop management policy and slow the invasions in the future. The models are based on two component submodels. The first component was a stochastic gravity submodel for the propagule pressure between lakes via recreational boaters. The second component was a submodel for establishment risk, given that the invader has already been introduced to a lake. This component was a logistic regression model, incorporating up to 17 measured covariates that describe the physical and chemical condition of the lake. Variants of the risk model, each incorporating different subsets of the covariates, were calibrated using presence/absence data from a 300-lake survey conducted in 2005–2006 by the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN). The predictive capacity of the best model was high, giving AUC values close to 0.94. Of the model covariates considered, the most important predictors of existing invasions were propagule pressure and lake pH, and, to lesser extents, phosphorus (P) and lake elevation. Our fitting of the propagule pressure submodel demonstrated a significant Allee effect for Bythotrephes. Our development of the establishment risk predictor showed that it is essential to account for temporal variability in lake physico-chemistry. We demonstrated that invasions of lake networks by the spiny waterflea follow highly predictable patterns which can be understood with a properly calibrated, hierarchical risk model.
Date created
2011
DOI
doi:10.7939/R39G5GF8V
License information
Rights
© 2011 Springer. This version of this article is open access and can be downloaded and shared. The original author(s) and source must be cited.
Citation for previous publication
Potapov, A., Muirhead, J., Yan, N., Lele, S., & Lewis, M. (2011). Models of lake invasibility by Bythotrephes longimanus, a non-indigenous zooplankton. Biological Invasions, 13(11), 2459-2476. doi: 10.1007/s10530-011-0075-y
Source
Link to related item

File Details

Date Uploaded
Date Modified
2014-04-30T21:55:04.535+00:00
Audit Status
Audits have not yet been run on this file.
Characterization
File format: pdf (Portable Document Format)
Mime type: application/pdf
File size: 687442
Last modified: 2015:10:12 16:24:03-06:00
Filename: BI_2011_13.pdf
Original checksum: 40fe49a3b0b8ac64f96a44b549cfd8a8
Well formed: false
Valid: false
Status message: Unexpected error in findFonts java.lang.ClassCastException: edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfSimpleObject cannot be cast to edu.harvard.hul.ois.jhove.module.pdf.PdfDictionary offset=2491
Page count: 43
File language: en-CA
Activity of users you follow
User Activity Date