Integrated assessment of water use and greenhouse gas footprints of Canada’s electricity generation and oil and gas sectors

• Author / Creator

  Ankit Gupta

• The energy sector is responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, water withdrawal, and water consumption. There are strong dependences between energy production and water use, and the adoption of more clean energy production technologies will affect water use. Such technological changes are not well understood. There is very little research assessing the water use associated with clean energy pathways in the energy sector. The objective of this research is to understand and evaluate the water-use impacts of Canada’s renewable energy transition. This research developed an integrated energy-water model to assess clean energy scenarios and the resulting technology penetration, water use, and cumulative and marginal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions abatement costs. The energy sectors considered in this work are the oil and gas sector and the electricity generation sector. The Canadian Water Evaluation and Planning model (WEAP-Canada) was developed and integrated with the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP-Canada) system model to determine integrated water-greenhouse gas footprints for the electricity generation sector and the oil and gas sector for the years 2005-2050.
  This research develops integrated water-greenhouse gas footprints for future electricity generation mix pathways in Canada with a focus on deep decarbonization. The LEAP model of Canada’s electricity system was developed by using technology system capacity requirements, technology capacity addition, and technology and economic inputs to provide electricity generation technology capacities and generation, system costs, and GHG emissions. A Water Evaluation and Planning model for Canada’s electricity generation sector was also developed by considering one-hundred-fifty-six electricity generation water demand sites and seventy-four major rivers. The two models were integrated to analyze electricity production and its associated greenhouse gas emissions and water use. Two scenarios were developed and evaluated for a planning horizon of 2019 to 2050. First scenario was based on current policy and second scenario was developed with a deep decarbonization target of 100%. In the current policy scenario, water consumption is projected to decrease by 5% and GHG emissions to decrease by 81% by 2050 compared to 2019. In the 100% decarbonization scenario, the water consumption is projected to increase by 3% by 2050 compared to 2019. Setting decarbonization targets of 100% resulted in a marginal water consumption of 3.6% and marginal GHG abatement costs of $23 per tonne of CO2 equivalent. There are water consumption tradeoffs in the 100% decarbonization scenario, but they are
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  relatively small compared to those in other water-consuming sectors in Canada. Assessing the water-use impacts and costs of GHG emission reduction pathways helps to identify the co-benefits or tradeoffs associated with decarbonizing this sector and may be useful in policy development.
  This research also develops water use footprints for future oil and gas production in Canada by considering different energy pathways. The oil and gas section of the thesis focuses on developing a baseline for future water-GHG analysis in the oil and gas sector rather than understanding the water-GHG trade-off for clean energy scenarios. The WEAP model of Canada’s oil and gas sector (WEAP-COG) was developed using production, water-use intensities, and production shares based on watersheds to provide water withdrawal and consumption at the watershed level. Using the six water withdrawal sectors of the oil and gas sector (oil sands mining, oil sands in situ production, bitumen upgrading, conventional crude oil production, natural gas production, and crude oil refining), we modelled twenty rivers and forty-five demand sites. Energy scenarios were adopted from literature for high-price and low-price cases and then run in the WEAP-COG model. The results were compared to the reference scenario results to obtain marginal water use and GHG footprints for each scenario. The GHG emissions, water withdrawal, and water consumption for the oil and gas sector will increase by 80%, 21%, and 39% by 2050 from 2005, respectively, because of the increase in oil production. GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector will exceed Canada’s nationally determined contributions (NDC) target. The adoption of clean energy, less water-consuming technologies is recommended in order to achieve the current NDC target or to mitigate future water stress. The results developed in this research can be used by the decision makers in the government and industry for investment decision and policy formulation.

• Subjects / Keywords

  • GHG emissions
  • oil and gas sector
  • electricity generation sector
  • water use
  • Integrated water-GHG assessment
  • energy sector

• Graduation date

  Spring 2020

• Type of Item

  Thesis

• Degree

  Master of Science

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-74g5-ex49

• License

  Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.