A simulation/optimization system for modelling timber and old forest under stochastic fire disturbance

• Author / Creator

  Conrod, Matthew

• Stochastic wildfire disturbance contributes to uncertainty in forest management planning.
  In this study, a system composed of an optimizing forest estate model nested within a Monte
  Carlo simulation model of stand replacing fires is used to investigate the impact stochastic
  fire may have on the achievement of harvest level and old forest area targets. Two different
  variations of the modelling system are used to test the impact a buffer stock of timber will
  have on the probability of achieving these indicators targets. Preliminary results suggest
  that a reduced harvest level may increase the probability of indicator achievement. However,
  the immediate harvest level decrease necessary is high and there is still no assurance of
  target achievement. Further, from a net present value perspective, most scenarios examined
  showed a higher proft in the absence of a buffer stock.

• Subjects / Keywords

  • Linear programming
  • Monte carlo simulation
  • Forest estate modelling

• Graduation date

  Spring 2011

• Type of Item

  Thesis

• Degree

  Master of Science

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/R39Q7J

• License

  This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.