A simulation/optimization system for modelling timber and old forest under stochastic fire disturbance

  • Author / Creator
    Conrod, Matthew
  • Stochastic wildfire disturbance contributes to uncertainty in forest management planning. In this study, a system composed of an optimizing forest estate model nested within a Monte Carlo simulation model of stand replacing fires is used to investigate the impact stochastic fire may have on the achievement of harvest level and old forest area targets. Two different variations of the modelling system are used to test the impact a buffer stock of timber will have on the probability of achieving these indicators targets. Preliminary results suggest that a reduced harvest level may increase the probability of indicator achievement. However, the immediate harvest level decrease necessary is high and there is still no assurance of target achievement. Further, from a net present value perspective, most scenarios examined showed a higher proft in the absence of a buffer stock.

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  • Type of Item
  • Degree
    Master of Science
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    This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.