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Marine Heatwave Dynamics in James Bay: A Numerical Modelling Approach
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- Author / Creator
- Louis, Hannah L
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The Hudson Bay and James Bay are critically understudied regions of the Arctic undergoing many changes due to climate change and Arctic Amplification. Cree and Inuit communities surrounding the bay have reported drastic changes in the marine environment since the late 1990s. This thesis explores the connection that Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) may have played into these reported changes. With climate change and the associated increasing atmospheric temperatures and warmer, more open oceans, we will likely see more extreme MHWs. Therefore, identifying key drivers in MHW dynamics is important for understanding how southern Hudson Bay and James Bay (SHBJB) may be impacted in the future due to climate change. This thesis first explores how SHBJB sea surface temperature (SST) has responded over the past 21 years using the forced ocean model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). Then, the processes affecting MHWs are analysed using the model, calculating both the oceanic horizontal advection and the air-sea heat fluxes. To understand the dynamics further, two case studies with the highest SST anomalies are analysed closer, looking at both the years 2005 and 2017. These case studies follow a similar analysis, calculating both the horizontal advection and air-sea heat fluxes, and show that the shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes are the main driver that onsets the MHW event both years. Horizontal advection seems to play a secondary role in MHWs, either acting to prolong the event until ice cover begins to start, or creating another MHW event in the late fall/early winter. Lastly, this thesis explores sensitivity experiments that deviate from the baseline experiment used for the initial MHW analysis. An extended time period with different atmospheric forcing is used as the first sensitivity experiment, showing MHWs that seem to match up with the same reports from local Indigenous communities of drastic climate change in the region. The final sensitivity experiment explore how added river temperatures affect the MHW dynamics in the SHBJB region, ultimately showing a null result.
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- Subjects / Keywords
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- Graduation date
- Fall 2024
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- Type of Item
- Thesis
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- Degree
- Master of Science
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- License
- This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Library with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.