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Modeling the Hydrology and Water Resources Management of South Saskatchewan River Basin under the Potential Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Anomalies

  • Author / Creator
    Islam, Md. Zahidul
  • The objective of this research study is to investigate the potential impact of climate change, and the combined impacts of climate change and climate anomalies on the hydrology and water resources management for the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta for the 21st century. The fully-distributed physically based hydrologic model MISBA was selected to simulate the future streamflow of SSRB under the potential impact of climate change, and the combined impacts of climate change and climate anomalies. Under these climate projections, MISBA simulated significantly less streamflow for SSRB in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. While considering the potential combined impact of climate change and climate anomalies, a further decrease (increase) in the streamflow of SSRB by 2050s was simulated if the climate anomaly considered was El Niño (La Niña). Next, the Irrigation District Model (IDM) of Alberta Agriculture Food and Rural Development was used to assess the future irrigation water demand of the SSRB. Under the impact of climate change, IDM’s simulations show that the irrigation water demand are expected to increase over 21st century. A further decrease (increase) in the irrigation demand by 2050s is projected under the potential combined impact of climate change and El Niño (La Niña). Finally, the Water Resources Management Model (WRMM) of Alberta Environment was used to assess the future outlook of water resources management of SSRB. According to the simulations of WRMM, license holders categorized under district irrigation, junior and future private irrigation, and senior, junior and future non-irrigation consumptive user groups will face water shortages which will progressively get worse in the 21st century. As compared to the impact of climate change alone, the combined effect of climate change with El Niño (La Niña) episodes would lead to even more (less) severe water shortages by 2050s if were considered.

  • Subjects / Keywords
  • Graduation date
    2013-06
  • Type of Item
    Thesis
  • Degree
    Doctor of Philosophy
  • DOI
    https://doi.org/10.7939/R31353
  • License
    This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.
  • Language
    English
  • Institution
    University of Alberta
  • Degree level
    Doctoral
  • Department
    • Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  • Specialization
    • Water Resources Engineering
  • Supervisor / co-supervisor and their department(s)
    • Gan, Thian Yew (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
  • Examining committee members and their departments
    • Hicks, Faye (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
    • Hayashi, Masaki (Geoscience, University of Calgary)
    • Steffler, Peter (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
    • Bindiganavile, Vivek (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
    • Reuter, Gerhard ( Earth and Atmospheric Sciences)