Hybrid fuzzy system dynamics model for analyzing the impacts of interrelated risk and opportunity events on project contingency

• Author(s) / Creator(s)

  • Siraj, Nasir B.
  • Fayek, Aminah Robinson

• Traditional risk analysis techniques are ineffective for capturing the dynamic causal interactions and subjective
  uncertainties involved in assessing risk and opportunity events since they treat risks independently and rely on the availability of sufficient historical data. In this paper, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics (FSD) model is developed to analyze the
  impacts of interrelated and interacting risk and opportunity events on work package cost to determine work package and
  project contingencies using expert judgement and subjective assessment. A fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is employed to structure and analyze the causal interactions among risk and opportunity
  events. This paper provides the following contributions: (1) a systematic risk assessment and prioritization procedure; (2) a
  structured method for defining the dynamic causal relationships among risk and opportunity events and quantifying their
  impact on work package and project contingencies using FSD; and (3) a method for representing linguistic variables and
  applying fuzzy arithmetic in FSD.

• Date created

  2020-07-23

• Subjects / Keywords

  • Construction
  • Risk analysis
  • Contingency
  • System dynamics
  • Fuzzy logic
  • DEMATEL

• Type of Item

  Article (Draft / Submitted)

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-2gxx-1n23

• License

  © Canadian Science Publishing