Quantitative Risk Tolerance Analysis and Simulation Template Developement

• Author / Creator

  Zhou, Xiang Yu

• In the current construction industry, simulation is an effective technology that can assist engineers’ decision making on project planning and estimation. The key contribution of simulation is to model uncertainty and risk occurrence during the construction process; however, this method still lacks a quantitative method to determine how much risk the decision maker is willing to accept. This thesis aims to develop an approach that can assist decision making on what percentile from a cumulative distribution function (CDF) of project cost reflects the organization’s risk appetite and overall acceptance of risk. In order to enhance this quantitative risk analysis, a special purpose template was re-developed in Simphony.Net, based on program evaluation and review technique (PERT). This template provides an integrated cost/schedule model, and transforms the model to simulation-based planning, in which the uncertainties of project cost and schedule are evaluated through computer simulation.

• Subjects / Keywords

  • Simulation Model
  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Risk Tolerance

• Graduation date

  Spring 2015

• Type of Item

  Thesis

• Degree

  Master of Science

• DOI

  https://doi.org/10.7939/R3ST7F38H

• License

  This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.