An Assessment of the Penetration of Low Carbon Technologies in the Energy Demand and Supply Sectors

  • Author / Creator
    Radpour, Saeidreza
  • The penetration of emerging low carbon energy technologies in the energy sector can provide significant opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An assessment of the market penetration of energy technologies can also help us understand their future adoption, which is critical in energy planning and management. There is limited research in this area. The overall aim of this research was to develop modeling frameworks to assess the penetration potential of low carbon energy technologies in various energy demand and supply sectors. The frameworks were applied to assess the penetration of low carbon technologies in the residential, industry, and electric power generation sectors. First, a comprehensive literature review was conducted. Then, appropriate methods to assess the market penetration level of low carbon energy technologies in different energy demand and supply sectors were determined. Hybrid models, comprising time series analyses, econometric models, and cost models, were then developed to assess the market penetration level of demand-side energy consumer technologies. A hybrid model was developed to assess the market penetration of low carbon energy technologies in the residential sector and was applied to analyze the adoption of high energy efficient appliances. This analysis focused on six major appliances – refrigerators, freezers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, dishwashers, and ranges. A new Market Penetration Model for Oil Sands Extraction Technology (MAPL-OET) was developed as a stand-alone tool to analyze the market penetration of commercial and emerging energy technologies in the oil sands sector. Finally, a hybrid model called MArket Penetration ModeLling of Energy technologies for Power Sector (MAPL-RET) was developed to assess the market penetration and market share potential of renewable energy technologies in a particular jurisdiction. The results from the residential sector case study for Alberta show that the market penetration growth rate of dishwashers is higher than that of all other appliances, with a projected 30.52% increase between 2012 and 2050. The modelling results also indicate that the average annual energy consumption of refrigerators will decrease from 560.9 kWh in 2012 to 460.8 kWh in 2050, which indicates an annual energy efficiency improvement of 0.5%. One of the key results from MAPL-OET indicates that carbon price can play a significant role in the market penetration of emerging oil sands extraction technologies. The shares of solvent-based extraction were 22.5%, 28.2%, 31.2%, and 38.1% in the zero, business-as-usual, low, and high carbon price scenarios by 2050, respectively. And finally, the MAPL-RET model outputs show that implementing a carbon price on fossil fuel electric power sources and incentives for renewable energies along with the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation help increase the penetration of renewable energy technologies. This can reduce GHG emissions from 46.5 Mt of CO2 eq. in 2020 to 23.6 and 29.1 Mt of CO2 eq. per year in 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to the business-as-usual case. The developed methods and approaches could help assess the impacts of policies related to incentives, subsidies, and carbon price on market penetration levels of low carbon energy technologies in the energy demand and supply sectors. The models developed in this study can help in energy forecasting and planning for policy formulation and decision making.

  • Subjects / Keywords
  • Graduation date
    Spring 2021
  • Type of Item
  • Degree
    Doctor of Philosophy
  • DOI
  • License
    This thesis is made available by the University of Alberta Libraries with permission of the copyright owner solely for non-commercial purposes. This thesis, or any portion thereof, may not otherwise be copied or reproduced without the written consent of the copyright owner, except to the extent permitted by Canadian copyright law.