- 156 views
- 213 downloads
Climate Change Impacts on Logging Operations and Winter Roads: Costs and Mitigation Strategies
-
- Author / Creator
- Kuloglu, Tevfik
-
Many cold regions of North America rely on frozen ground for forestry operations to reduce environmental impacts, decrease costs, and access difficult areas surrounded by wet soils. Climate change may influence forestry operations by reducing winter access in those cold regions.
In this thesis, I analyzed the cost of logging operations associated with equipment and labour needs. I developed a cost calculator model to determine the logging costs of a hypothetical mill in Alberta, Canada. I assessed the cost changes under two conditions: first, when wood was hauled to the mill directly; and second, when part of the wood was hauled to satellite yards close to the logging area, thereby minimizing the number of idle hauling trucks. I then used general circulation models (HadGEM2-ES) to predict future winter weather. Logging cost increased over time because more machines and labour will be needed to complete logging in shorter winter. If wood was hauled directly to the mill, the unit cost of logging operations ($/m3) was projected to increase by an average of 2% to 3% in 2020 – 2039, 3% to 5% in the 2040 – 2059 and 5% to 11% in the 2070 – 2089 compared to the base year. With use of satellite yards, the total logging cost was estimated to increase by 2% to 3% in the 2020 – 2039, 3% to 6% in the 2040 – 2059 and 5% to 11% in the 2070 – 2089 periods. The results suggest that in the event of an extremely warm winter, equipment needs would be more than double at the end of the century.
Then, I analyzed the cost of roading if logging operations were shifted from winter to the summer season. I calculated the costs of temporary roads (both winter and summer) for four harvesting units with different levels of difficulty of access; variables included the length of the road network, stream crossing, and the amount of corduroy road for wetland crossing. Then, I analyzed the changes in roading cost for summer access under different soil wetness that affects the amount of corduroy. The longer road networks and the building of corduroy roads were the costlier additions to summer roading costs. The average cost of temporary road construction increased from 1,200 $/km or 0.30 $/m3 in winter to 5,900 $/km or 2.14 $/m3 in summer. The roading costs in summer ($/km) were expected to be 2 to 6.7 times more than winter road cost. This study showed that when logging switched from frozen to non-frozen, the average cost of roading will increase depending on soil wetness, amount of corduroy requirement, and wood basket in the area.
Finally, I developed temperature prediction models to predict roadbed frost penetration in fall and decay in spring. This was used to estimate the length of winter weight premium (WWP) that allows logging trucks to carry heavier loads on the highway. General circulation model outputs were then used to predict future length of the WWP and I calculated the cost of trucking based upon shortened WWP season. WWP period was projected to decrease by up to 5 days in 2020 – 2039, 13 days for 2040 – 2059 and 32 days for 2070 – 2089. The trucking costs due to shorter WWP period during the extremely warm winter was predicted to increase by up to 2% in 2020 – 2039, up to 6% in 2040 – 2059 and up to 8% in 2070 – 2089 when wood hauled directly to the mill. With the satellite yard use, the trucking costs will increase by up to 5% in 2020 – 2039, up to 8% in 2040 – 2059 and up to 16% in 2070 – 2089. This study showed that the length of WWP decreased, resulting in increased trucks during winter when wood hauled directly to the mill. With the use of satellite yards, fewer hauling trucks were needed but costs were higher because of the additional unloading and re-loading at satellite yards and smaller loads in summer.
Future studies might focus on: 1) exploring the landscape level analysis and timber supply models; 2) examining corduroy alternatives, such as rig mats, timber bridges and brush mats 3) heuristic modelling to allocate adaption options to warming climate and sensitivity analysis of logging costs that impacted by uncertain climate variables.
-
- Graduation date
- Fall 2020
-
- Type of Item
- Thesis
-
- Degree
- Doctor of Philosophy
-
- License
- Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.