Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle

  • Author(s) / Creator(s)
  • Mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks have caused major economic losses and ecological consequences
    in North American pine forests. Ecological and environmental factors impacting MPB life-history and
    stands susceptibility can help with the detection of MPB infested trees and thereby, improve control.
    Temperatures, water stress, host characteristics, and beetle pressure are among those ecological and
    environmental factors. They play diferent roles on MPB population dynamics at the various stages
    of an outbreak and these roles can be afected by intensive management. However, to make detailed
    connections between ecological and environmental variables and MPB outbreak phases, a deeper
    quantitative analysis on local scales is needed. Here, we used logistic regressions on a highly-detailed
    and georeferenced data set to determine the factors driving MPB infestations for the diferent phases
    of the current isolated MPB outbreak in Cypress Hills. While we showed that the roles of ecological
    and environmental factors in a forest intensively controlled for MPB are consistent with the literature
    for uncontrolled forests, we determined how these factors shifted through onset, peak, and collapse
    phases of the intensively controlled forest. MPB presence mostly depends on nearby beetle pressure,
    notably for the outbreak peak. However additional weather and host variables are necessary to achieve
    high predictive ability for MPB outbreak locations. Our results can help managers make appropriate
    decisions on where and how to focus their efort, depending on which phase the outbreak is in.

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  • Type of Item
    Article (Published)
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  • License
    Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
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  • Citation for previous publication
    • Kunegel-Lion, M., Lewis, M.A. 2020b. Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle. Scientific Reports 10(1): 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63388-8