Two Essays on Market Interdependencies, Price Volatility and Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley, U.S. Corn and Alberta Cattle Markets Open Access
- Other title
- Type of item
- Degree grantor
University of Alberta
- Author or creator
- Supervisor and department
Rude, James (Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology)
Qiu, Feng (Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology)
- Examining committee member and department
Unterschultz, James (Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology)
Galvani, Valentina (Department of Economics)
Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology
Agriculture and resource economics
- Date accepted
- Graduation date
Master of Science
- Degree level
Over the last decade, Alberta cattle markets have experienced several extreme events, including the 2003 Canadian bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis and recent episodes of feed price surges. These events may have affected the price volatility of Alberta cattle and its interdependencies with the feed grain markets. This thesis consists of two essays that aim to assess market interdependencies, price volatility and volatility spillovers in the western Canadian feed barley, U.S. corn and Alberta cattle industries.
The first essay employed the asymmetric generalized dynamic conditional correlation (AG-DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) framework to quantify volatility changes and market interdependencies among relevant markets. The model results suggested that the fed cattle price volatility was higher than the feeder cattle price volatility during the BSE crisis, while the opposite was true during non-BSE periods. Furthermore, no evidence was found to prove that the cattle and feed barley price volatility changed during food price surges. Although strong market interdependencies were found throughout the cattle supply chain, these relationships were weakened at the beginning of the BSE crisis. In contrast, weak interdependencies between the cattle and the feed grain markets were found. Moreover, the market relationships exhibited only small changes during the BSE crisis and feed price surges.
The second essay assesses price volatility spillovers in the Alberta cattle supply chain and between the cattle and feed grain markets using the bivariate asymmetric BEKK-GARCH model. Although bidirectional price volatility spillovers were found throughout the Alberta cattle supply chain, spillovers between cattle and feed grain price volatility were found exclusively between the Alberta lighter feeder cattle and Lethbridge barley markets. Furthermore, model results indicated strong volatility spillovers from the U.S. corn market to the barley market. Interestingly, volatility spillovers were not found between the Alberta fed cattle and barley markets. However, barley price volatility might still be transmitted to the fed cattle market through feeder cattle price volatility.
This thesis contributes to the relatively scarce literature on price volatility and market linkages in the western Canadian agricultural sector, providing useful information for agricultural producers managing market risks and for policy makers designing efficient price stabilization programs.
- Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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