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Potential Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change to Athabasca River Basin based on Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios of IPCC Open Access


Other title
Dynamically Downscaled
Athabasca River Basin
Climate Change
Type of item
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Wang, Jingwen
Supervisor and department
Gan, Thian Yew (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Examining committee member and department
Reuter, Gerhard (Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences)
She, Yuntong (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Water Resources Engineering
Date accepted
Graduation date
Master of Science
Degree level
To investigate the potential hydrologic impact of climate change on the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) of Alberta, Canada, the fully distributed physically based model, Modified Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (MISBA) land surface scheme of Kerkhoven and Gan (2006) was driven with two SRES climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) of IPCC (2007) dynamically downscaled by MM5, to simulate the future water availability of ARB for 2050s and 2080s. MM5 is the Fifth-generation Mesoscale Model jointly developed by the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The four GCMs selected were ECHAM5 (wettest), MIROC3.2 (warmest and driest), CGCM3 and CCSM3 (moderate). Due to warming, the future streamflow of ARB simulated by MISBA show that ARB is generally expected to experience a decrease in streamflow. The management of ARB’s water resources system should be adjusted to augment against possible shortfall to various users relying on ARB for water supply. The results of this study based on climate scenarios of GCMs dynamically downscaled by MM5 are compared with results of Kerkhoven and Gan (2011) for ARB based on climate scenarios that were statistically downscaled.
Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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