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- 63Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Department of/Research Publications (Mathematical and Statistical Sciences)
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- 39The NSERC TRIA Network (TRIA-Net)/Journal Articles (TRIA-Net)
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Coupling mountain pine beetle and forest population dynamics predicts transient outbreaks that are likely to increase in number with climate change
Download2023-09-27
Mountain pine beetle (MPB) in Canada have spread well beyond their historical range. Accurate modelling of the long-term dynamics of MPB is critical for assessing the risk of further expansion and informing management strategies, particularly in the context of climate change and variable forest...
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2022-01-01
Peter R. Thompson, Mark A. Lewis, Mark A. Edwards, Andrew E. Derocher
Background Animal movement modelling provides unique insight about how animals perceive their landscape and how this perception may influence space use. When coupled with data describing an animal’s environment, ecologists can fit statistical models to location data to describe how spatial memory...
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2022-01-05
Xiunan Wang, Hao Wang, Pouria Ramazi, Kyeongah Nah, Mark Lewis
Understanding the joint impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 development is important for making public health decisions that control the pandemic. Recently, we created a method in forecasting the daily number of confirmed cases of infectious diseases by...
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Beyond resource selection: emergent spatio–temporal distributions from animal movements and stigmergent interactions
Download2022-01-01
Jonathan R. Potts, Valeria Giunta, Mark A. Lewis
A principal concern of ecological research is to unveil the causes behind observed spatio–temporal distributions of species. A key tactic is to correlate observed locations with environmental features, in the form of resource selection functions or other correlative species distribution models....
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2022-01-01
Peter D. Harrington, Mark A. Lewis, P. van den Driessche
Transient dynamics often differ drastically from the asymptotic dynamics of systems. In this paper we analyze transient dynamics in birth-jump metapopulations where dispersal occurs immediately after birth (e.g., via larval dispersal). We address the choice of appropriate norms as well as...
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2022-01-01
Xiunan Wang, Hao Wang, Pouria Ramazi, Kyeongah Nah, Mark Lewis
Accurate prediction of the number of daily or weekly confirmed cases of COVID-19 is critical to the control of the pandemic. Existing mechanistic models nicely capture the disease dynamics. However, to forecast the future, they require the transmission rate to be known, limiting their prediction...
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2022-01-01
Peter D. Harrington, Danielle L. Cantrell, Michael G. G. Foreman, Ming Guo, Mark A. Lewis
Sea lice are a threat to the health of both wild and farmed salmon and an economic burden for salmon farms. With a free-living larval stage, sea lice can disperse tens of kilometres in the ocean between salmon farms, leading to connected sea louse populations that are difficult to control in...
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Modeling the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York and San Francisco using a pairwise network model
Download2022-01-01
Shanshan Feng, Xiao-Feng Luo, Xin Pei, Zhen Jin, Mark Lewis, Hao Wang
Classical epidemiological models assume mass action. However, this assumption is violated when interactions are not random. With the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and resulting shelter in place social distancing directives, mass action models must be modified to account for limited social...
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Detecting minimum energy states and multi-stability in nonlocal advection–diffusion models for interacting species
Download2022-06-13
Valeria Giunta, Thomas Hillen, Mark A. Lewis, Jonathan R. Potts
Deriving emergent patterns from models of biological processes is a core concern of mathematical biology. In the context of partial differential equations, these emergent patterns sometimes appear as local minimisers of a corresponding energy functional. Here we give methods for determining the...