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Three Essays on the Interplay between Trading and Business Conditions Open Access


Other title
business cycle
stock returns
order flow
marketwide private information
Type of item
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Kayacetin, Nuri Volkan
Supervisor and department
Kaul, Aditya (University of Alberta, School of Business)
Examining committee member and department
Watanabe, Akiko (University of Alberta, School of Business)
Chordia, Tarun (Emory University, Goizueta Business School)
Jamal, Karim (University of Alberta, School of Business)
Galvani, Valentina (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
Mehrotra, Vikas (University of Alberta, School of Business)
Faculty of Business

Date accepted
Graduation date
Doctor of Philosophy
Degree level
The first essay provides evidence on the origins of the size and value premiums by examining how order flow in the SMB and HML portfolios relates to economic conditions and investor sentiment. We find that buying pressure for SMB and HML is lower (increases) when economic conditions are expected to deteriorate (improve), while it is unrelated to proxies for investor sentiment and sales growth. These findings are consistent with big stock and value stocks being regarded as hedges against adverse shifts in economic conditions, and support a rational state variable interpretation of the size and value premiums. The second essay finds that the marketwide average of individual stock order flows and the difference between the average order flow for big stocks and the average order flow for small stocks (order flow differential) predict growth rates in real GDP, industrial production, and corporate earnings. The predictive significance of these two measures is robust to controls for return factors, suggesting a role for order flow in forecasting stock returns. Consistently, we show that an increase in the order flow differential forecasts higher returns for ten size-sorted portfolios and significantly greater market and size premiums in the subsequent quarter, even after accounting for a large host of variables. These findings are consistent with a world where aggregate order flow brings together dispersed information from heterogeneously informed investors. The third essay shows that stocks that are harder to value (stocks with less valuable growth options and more dispersed analyst forecasts) and stocks that attract less uninformed trading activity (small stocks, illiquid stocks, stocks not covered by analysts) have higher price impacts, greater probabilities of informed trading, and more private information in returns. In the time-series, reductions in trading activity and consumer sentiment increase the average price impact of trading and reduce the share of firm-specific information in returns. Recessions see high price impacts, low trading activity, and a smaller share of private signals in price movements. This reduction in private information seems to have an impact on the informativeness of prices for corporate managers: the sensitivity of corporate investment to the prices is significantly lower during recessions.
License granted by Nuri Volkan Kayacetin ( on 2010-04-13T06:24:04Z (GMT): Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of the above terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis, and except as herein provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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