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Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R3W950Q9P

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Chance Establishment for Sexual, Semelparous Species: Overcoming the Allee Effect Open Access

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Author or creator
Jerde, Christopher L.
Bampfylde, Caroline J.
Lewis, Mark A.
Additional contributors
Subject/Keyword
nonindigenous species
propagule pressure
hierarchical modeling
demographic stochasticity
establishment
Allee effect
Type of item
Journal Article (Published)
Language
English
Place
Time
Description
We formalize the establishment process for a sexual, semelparous organism through the use of hierarchical probability modeling from parameters of survival, probability of being female, probability of being fertilized, and expected fecundity.We show how to calculate the expected per capita growth rate and probability of extinction. An Allee effect is observed if the expected population growth rate decreases as the initial population size decreases. The model can be further extended as a stochastic process to evaluate the probability of extinction in subsequent generations. One of the novel results is the formulation of an analytical probability distribution for the next generation population size. As case studies, we use the Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis) and the apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata), both of which appear on the World Conservation Union’s list of 100 worst invaders.We evaluate the strength of the Allee effect and conclude that apple snails experience a weak Allee effect and Chinese mitten crabs experience a strong Allee effect. We emphasize one scenario where the stochastic process reveals that invasion risk can be estimated by the probability of the survival of one fertilized female, because the expected fecundity for one surviving female overwhelms the system such that population persistence is almost certain.
Date created
2009
DOI
doi:10.7939/R3W950Q9P
License information
Rights
Copyright 2009 by The University of Chicago
Citation for previous publication
Christopher L. Jerde, Caroline J. Bampfylde and Mark A. Lewis. (2009). Chance Establishment for Sexual, Semelparous Species: Overcoming the Allee Effect. The American Naturalist , Vol. 173, No. 6, pp. 734-746
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