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Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R39C6S84R

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Lightning prediction models for the province of Alberta, Canada Open Access

Descriptions

Other title
Subject/Keyword
Wildfire
RandomForest
Lightning-prediction
Lightning
Fire
Type of item
Thesis
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Blouin, Karen D
Supervisor and department
Flannigan, Mike (Renewable Resources)
Examining committee member and department
Reuter, Gerhard (Earth and Atmospheric Sciences)
Kochtubajda, Bob (Environment Canada)
Nielsen, Scott (Renewable Resources)
Wang, Xianli (Renewable Resources)
Department
Department of Renewable Resources
Specialization
Forest Biology and Management
Date accepted
2014-01-29T11:05:22Z
Graduation date
2014-06
Degree
Master of Science
Degree level
Master's
Abstract
Lightning is widely acknowledged as a major cause of wildland fires in Canada. On average, 250,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes occur in Alberta every year. Lightning-caused wildland fires in remote areas have considerably larger suppression costs and a much greater chance of escaping initial attack. Geographic and temporal covariates were paired with Reanalysis and Radiosonde observations to generate a series of 6-hour and 24-hour lightning prediction models valid from April to October. These models, based on cloud-to-ground lightning from the CLDN, were developed and validated for the province of Alberta, Canada. The ensemble forecasts produced from these models were most accurate in the Rocky Mountain and Foothills Natural Regions achieving hits rates of ~85%. The Showalter index, convective available potential energy, Julian day, and geographic covariates were highly important predictors. Random forest classification is introduced as a viable modelling method to generate lightning forecasts. Limitations and recommendations are also discussed.
Language
English
DOI
doi:10.7939/R39C6S84R
Rights
Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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Last modified: 2015:10:12 15:40:39-06:00
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File title: Karen Blouin
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Page count: 131
File language: en-CA
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