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Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R3NS93

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Temperature-dependent butterfly dynamics Open Access

Descriptions

Other title
Subject/Keyword
Rocky Mountain Apollo
alpine meadows
Bernoulli process model
temperature-dependent growth
climate change
Parnassius smintheus
population dynamics
Type of item
Thesis
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Wheeler, Jeanette
Supervisor and department
Lewis, Mark (Mathematical and Statistical Sciences)
Examining committee member and department
Roland, Jens (Biological Sciences)
Bampfylde, Caroline (Alberta Environment)
Wang, Hao (Mathematical and Statistical Sciences)
Department
Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
Specialization

Date accepted
2010-09-30T16:53:23Z
Graduation date
2010-11
Degree
Master of Science
Degree level
Master's
Abstract
Climate change is currently a central problem in ecology, with far-reaching effects on species that may be diffcult to quantify. Ectothermic species which rely on environmental cues to complete successive stages of their life history are especially sensitive to temperature changes and so are good indicators of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Based on data collected in growth experiments for the alpine butterfly Parnassius smintheus (Rocky Mountain Apollo), a novel mathematical model is presented to study developmental rate in larval insects. The movement of an individual through larval instars is treated as a discrete-time four-outcome Bernoulli process, where class transition and death are assigned temperature-dependent probabilities. Transition and mortality probabilities are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation techniques. This adult emergence model is then integrated into a reproductive success model, and multi-year implications of climate change on the population dynamics of P. smintheus are explored.
Language
English
DOI
doi:10.7939/R3NS93
Rights
License granted by Jeanette Wheeler (jwheeler@ualberta.ca) on 2010-09-27T17:01:58Z (GMT): Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of the above terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis, and except as herein provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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