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Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R3ST7F38H

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Quantitative Risk Tolerance Analysis and Simulation Template Developement Open Access

Descriptions

Other title
Subject/Keyword
Risk Tolerance
Simulation Model
Monte Carlo Simulation
Type of item
Thesis
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Zhou, Xiang Yu
Supervisor and department
AbouRizk, Simaan (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Examining committee member and department
Pourrahimian, Yashar (Civil and Environmental)
Al-Hussein, Mohamed (Civil and Environmental)
AbouRizk, Simaan (Civil and Environmental)
Han, SangUK (Civil and Environmental)
Department
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Specialization
Construction Engineering and Management
Date accepted
2015-01-13T14:00:33Z
Graduation date
2015-06
Degree
Master of Science
Degree level
Master's
Abstract
In the current construction industry, simulation is an effective technology that can assist engineers’ decision making on project planning and estimation. The key contribution of simulation is to model uncertainty and risk occurrence during the construction process; however, this method still lacks a quantitative method to determine how much risk the decision maker is willing to accept. This thesis aims to develop an approach that can assist decision making on what percentile from a cumulative distribution function (CDF) of project cost reflects the organization’s risk appetite and overall acceptance of risk. In order to enhance this quantitative risk analysis, a special purpose template was re-developed in Simphony.Net, based on program evaluation and review technique (PERT). This template provides an integrated cost/schedule model, and transforms the model to simulation-based planning, in which the uncertainties of project cost and schedule are evaluated through computer simulation.
Language
English
DOI
doi:10.7939/R3ST7F38H
Rights
Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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