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Understanding and Improving Input for Quantitative Risk Analysis in the Construction Industry Open Access


Other title
input parameters
Monte Carlo Simulation
Range estimating
risk analysis
Type of item
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Abou Rizk, Hala
Supervisor and department
Abou Rizk, Simon (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Robinson Fayek, Aminah (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Examining committee member and department
Al-Hussein,Mohamed(Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Moussa,Walied (Mechanical Engineering)
Robinson Fayek, Aminah (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Abou Rizk, Simon (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Construction Engineering and Management
Date accepted
Graduation date
Master of Science
Degree level
Risk analysis in the construction industry involves identifying risk events that could potentially affect a project and its delivery, quantifying those risks, and developing mitigation strategies to enhance project success. This thesis aims to improve the process of risk analysis through the enhancement of the quantification process (QRA) using Monte Carlo techniques. In particular, this study investigates qualitative verbal expressions utilized when gathering information from experts and the methods by which they are converted into quantitative data for analysis. The effects of the quantitative data used as inputs have been found to affect the resulting values and distributions. In order to enhance this process, a survey is created to better understand verbal expressions used in the risk analysis process. This has resulted in a table of corresponding quantitative values, in terms of deterministic values and beta distributions, which can be utilized for QRA and extended to other areas of academia.
Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
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