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Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R31353

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Modeling the Hydrology and Water Resources Management of South Saskatchewan River Basin under the Potential Combined Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Anomalies Open Access

Descriptions

Other title
Subject/Keyword
Climate Change
South Saskatchewan River Basin
Hydrology
Water Resources Management
Climate Anomalies
Type of item
Thesis
Degree grantor
University of Alberta
Author or creator
Islam, Md. Zahidul
Supervisor and department
Gan, Thian Yew (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Examining committee member and department
Reuter, Gerhard ( Earth and Atmospheric Sciences)
Steffler, Peter (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Hayashi, Masaki (Geoscience, University of Calgary)
Bindiganavile, Vivek (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Hicks, Faye (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Department
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Specialization
Water Resources Engineering
Date accepted
2013-01-05T12:15:22Z
Graduation date
2013-06
Degree
Doctor of Philosophy
Degree level
Doctoral
Abstract
The objective of this research study is to investigate the potential impact of climate change, and the combined impacts of climate change and climate anomalies on the hydrology and water resources management for the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) of Alberta for the 21st century. The fully-distributed physically based hydrologic model MISBA was selected to simulate the future streamflow of SSRB under the potential impact of climate change, and the combined impacts of climate change and climate anomalies. Under these climate projections, MISBA simulated significantly less streamflow for SSRB in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. While considering the potential combined impact of climate change and climate anomalies, a further decrease (increase) in the streamflow of SSRB by 2050s was simulated if the climate anomaly considered was El Niño (La Niña). Next, the Irrigation District Model (IDM) of Alberta Agriculture Food and Rural Development was used to assess the future irrigation water demand of the SSRB. Under the impact of climate change, IDM’s simulations show that the irrigation water demand are expected to increase over 21st century. A further decrease (increase) in the irrigation demand by 2050s is projected under the potential combined impact of climate change and El Niño (La Niña). Finally, the Water Resources Management Model (WRMM) of Alberta Environment was used to assess the future outlook of water resources management of SSRB. According to the simulations of WRMM, license holders categorized under district irrigation, junior and future private irrigation, and senior, junior and future non-irrigation consumptive user groups will face water shortages which will progressively get worse in the 21st century. As compared to the impact of climate change alone, the combined effect of climate change with El Niño (La Niña) episodes would lead to even more (less) severe water shortages by 2050s if were considered.
Language
English
DOI
doi:10.7939/R31353
Rights
Permission is hereby granted to the University of Alberta Libraries to reproduce single copies of this thesis and to lend or sell such copies for private, scholarly or scientific research purposes only. Where the thesis is converted to, or otherwise made available in digital form, the University of Alberta will advise potential users of the thesis of these terms. The author reserves all other publication and other rights in association with the copyright in the thesis and, except as herein before provided, neither the thesis nor any substantial portion thereof may be printed or otherwise reproduced in any material form whatsoever without the author's prior written permission.
Citation for previous publication
Islam, Z. and Gan, T. (2012). “Effects of Climate Change on the Surface Water Management of South Saskatchewan River Basin.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000326 .

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