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Permanent link (DOI): https://doi.org/10.7939/R36H4CS27
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Sequential decision-making in a variable environment: modeling elk movement in Yellowstone National Park as a dynamic game. Open Access
- Author or creator
Noonburg, E. G.
Newman, L. A.
Lewis, M. A.
Crabtree, R. L.
Potapov, A. B.
- Additional contributors
Yellowstone National Park
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- Journal Article (Published)
We develop a suite of models with varying complexity to predict elk movement behavior during the winter on the Northern Range of Yellowstone National Park (YNP). The models range from a simple representation of optimal patch choice to a dynamic game, and we show how the underlying theory in each is related by the presence or absence of state- and frequency-dependence. We compare predictions from each of the models for three variables that are of basic and applied interest: elk survival, aggregation, and use of habitat outside YNP. Our results suggest that despite low overall forage depletion in the winter, frequency-dependence is crucial to the predictions for elk movement and distribution. Furthermore, frequency-dependence interacts with mass-dependence in the predicted outcome of elk decision-making. We use these results to show how models that treat single movement decisions in isolation from the seasonal sequence of decisions are insufficient to capture landscape scale behavior.
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- © 2007 Elsevier. This version of this article is open access and can be downloaded and shared. The original author(s) and source must be cited.
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Noonburg, E. G., Newman, L. A., Lewis, M., Crabtree, R. L., & Potapov, A. B. (2007). Sequential decision-making in a variable environment: modeling elk movement in Yellowstone National Park as a dynamic game. Theoretical Population Biology, 71(2), 182-195.
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